Reference Material
| "Uncertainty in measuring mortality" (2006) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting | |
| **Only available to licence-holders of our software products. | |
| "Damaging your DNA" (2006) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting | |
| "Introduction to modelling mortality in R" (2005) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting | |
| **Only available to licence-holders of our software products. | |
| "Splines in Mortality Modelling" (2005) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting | |
| "Gender differentials in mortality" (2004) by Richards, S. J., The Actuary magazine, February 2004 | |
| The published article was changed from the original by The Actuary, which introduced the unfortunate error of describing gender differentials as 'sexual'. | |
| "Equal gender access to goods and services" (2004) by Select Sub-Committee G, Appearance before House of Lords Select Sub-Committee G, 5 May 2004 | |
| "Profit testing" (2004) by Richards, S. J., Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, John Wiley and Sons | |
| **Only available to licence-holders of our software products. | |
| "Unit-linked business" (2004) by Richards, S. J., Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science, John Wiley and Sons | |
| **Only available to licence-holders of our software products. |
We just want to experiment with GLMs and survival models. What software should we use without incurring large costs?
Try R, which is free, robust and reliable. If you want to step up to something more sophisticated later, then Longevitas will fit a wider variety of models. If you are worried about back-testing, Longevitas also generates files suitable for reading into R and will also generate R command scripts.
Will Longevitas run on our computers?
If you have a web browser and an Internet connection, you can run Longevitas.
What's the minimum amount of data I need for Longevitas?
Technically the minimum amount of data is one event. In practice, the smallest data set we have seen used was a pension scheme with 6,000 pensioners.
Our portfolio isn't even that big. What can we do?
Try mortalityrating.com, which uses a model of mortality by age, gender and postcode-driven lifestyle to rate small portfolios with little or no experience data. All you need are the following five data items for your pensioners: date of birth, gender, commencement date, annual pension and the full U.K. postcode.
Why would we consider Longevitas?
- The latest mortality models at the click of a mouse-button.
- Integrated support from a leading industry expert on modelling mortality and other demographic risks.
- No software to install!
- Use anywhere in the world.
- Intuitive, menu-driven approach - no programming language to learn!
- Online library of what works, what doesn't work (and why!)
- Unique expert system suggests improvements to your models based on fifteen years' experience of modelling mortality.
- Automatic report generation to document models.
- Automatic rate-table generation for use in pricing and reserving.
Can mortality have a big enough effect to make a difference to profitability?
Yes. Richards and Jones (2004) showed the impact on pension and annuity reserves of five rating factors besides age. Each one of them could cause a change which could wipe out a typical annuity pricing margin.
Standard tables express mortality rates by age and gender, so why can't we just pick one of those?
Standard tables are fine as they go, but they usually only use two rating factors: age and gender. Richards and Jones (2004) found four further rating factors beyond age and gender, all of which were material for pricing and reserving.
Incidentally, Longevitas has a charting tool which enables you to visually modify standard tables to better match the modelled mortality patterns observed in your portfolio. We also have a blog entry questioning the usefulness of standard tables in modelling work.
I don't see how postcodes can be relevant for mortality. Surely pension size is all that is needed?
See our Institute of Actuaries paper, which was peer-reviewed and details how and why postcodes work well for explaining mortality variation. For a generally lighter read without the maths, try our article in Life and Pensions magazine.
How can the same techniques be applied to both longevity and other risks such as persistency or transfer? Aren't they completely different processes?
First, there are some decrements which many of the same underlying features as mortality, such as critical illness. Mortality-orientated models tend to work well here.
Second, transfer and persistency risks do indeed have different behaviour, which is why we have a separate set of variables for application there.
Incidentally, we have a blog entry on the importance of using survival models for competing risks.
What can we do for non-U.K. data where there are no postcodes?
Versions of Longevitas exist for the U.S.A., Canada and the Netherlands, each of which has a hierarchical postcode-like structure, e.g. the nine-digit zip code in the United States. Other countries, such as France and Germany, can use address-based profiling.
I don't see how postcodes can be relevant for mortality. Surely pension size is all that is needed?
See our Institute of Actuaries paper, which was peer-reviewed and details how and why postcodes work well for explaining mortality variation. For a generally lighter read without the maths, try our article in Life and Pensions magazine.
Published Papers
Presentations
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