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(Oct 9, 2009)

The Institute of Actuaries' sessional meeting on 28th September 2009 discussed an interesting paper.  It covered similar material to that in Richards (2008), but used different methods and different data.  Nevertheless, some important results were confirmed: geodemographic type codes are important predictors of mortality, and a combination of geodemographic profile and pension size is better than either factor on its own.  The authors also added an important new insight, namely that last-known salary was a much better predictor than pension size.

The models in the paper were GLMs for qx, which require complete years of exposure.  The authors were rightly concerned that just using complete years would…

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Tags: geodemographics, GLM, survival models, UDD, Balducci assumption

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