### Logistical nightmares

#### (Jan 24, 2009)

A common Generalised Linear Model (GLM) for mortality modelling is logistic regression, also sometimes described as a Bernoulli GLM with a logistic link function.  This models mortality at the level of the individual, and models the rate of mortality over a single year.  When age is used as a continuous covariate, logistic regression has some very useful properties for pensioner mortality: exponentially increasing mortality from age 60 to 90 (say), with slower, non-exponential increases at higher ages.  Logistic regression was the foundation of the models presented in a SIAS paper on annuitant mortality.

Although logistic regression for the rate of mortality is nowadays superceded by more-powerful…

Tags: GLM, logistic regression