Getting animated about longevity

(Jun 7, 2018)

We'll be the first to admit that what we have here doesn't exactly provide Pixar levels of entertainment.  However, with the release of v2.7.9 users of the Projections Toolkit can now generate animations of fitted past mortality curves and their extrapolation into the future.  Such animations can help analysts understand the behaviour of a forecast, as well as being a particularly useful way of communicating with non-specialists.  Below is a selection of animations from a smoothed Lee-Carter model fitted to the data for males in England & Wales between ages 50 and 104.

Figure 1 shows the logarithm of the force of mortality in the data region (1971-2015) and the forecast region.  It shows how mortality is…

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Tags: survival curve, curve of deaths, mortality compression

Mortality transformation

(Sep 1, 2008)

A tool often used by demographers is the distribution of age at death in a population.  This is known to actuaries as the curve of deaths, and the past 170 years have seen a rather remarkable transformation in this curve.  In the mid-19th century mortality was characterised by a very high rate of mortality in the early years of life, as shown in the chart below using the third English Life Table for males:

Distribution of age at death according to English Life Table 3

The dark band in the chart above shows the shortest adult age range in which half of all deaths occur.  From the late 20th century onwards mortality looks very different, as shown below for English Life Table 15 for males:

Distribution of age at death according to English Life Table 15

As before, the shortest age range covering half of all deaths is marked in a darker colour.  There…

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Tags: mortality transformation, curve of deaths, mortality compression

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