Socio-economic differentials: convergence and divergence

(Jun 18, 2018)

Many western countries, including the UK, have recently experienced a slowdown in mortality improvements.  This might lead to the conclusion that the age of increasing life expectancies is over.  But is that the case for everyone?  Or are there some groups in the UK who are still experiencing mortality improvements?  The short answer is that mortality rates are still falling for the least deprived half of the population in England, while mortality improvements since 2011 have been virtually zero for the most deprived third.  This has important consequences for reserving for pensions and annuities, so let us explore in a bit more detail.  The findings in this blog are based on some early results of research…

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Tags: mortality convergence, mortality improvements, concentration risk, basis risk

Mind the gap!

(Nov 20, 2013)

Recognising and quantifying mortality differentials is what experience analysis is all about. Whether you calculate traditional A/E ratios, graduate raw rates by formula (Forfar et al. 1988), or fit a statistical model (Richards 2012), the aim is always to find risk factors influencing the level of mortality.

Many such differentials are well-known and anticipated: females v. males, smokers v. non-smokers, healthy v. ill, rich v. poor. Each of these pairings has differentials large enough to merit their own mortality tables. And even where courts and politicians have regulated against straightforward pricing of observable differentials, such risk factors should still be acknowledged in reserving…

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Tags: mortality convergence, survival models

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