Here is the nowcast

(Jan 6, 2022)

Everyone is familiar with the idea of a forecast. You have data on a phenomenon up to the current time, and want to forecast the phenomenon at some point in the future.  The most obvious example is the weather forecast, but forecasting is also required in pension and annuity work.  For example, when calculating reserves for pension payments, some kind of projection is required for future mortality improvements.

However, there are many situations where the phenomenon of interest is not known at the current time, but will be after a time lag.  Examples are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation statistics, which only become available a few months after the time point they refer to.  This is a problem for central…

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Tags: OBNR, reporting delays

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