Hitting the target, but missing the point

(Jan 31, 2013)

Targeting methods are popular in some areas for mortality forecasting. One well known current example is the CMI's model for forecasting mortality. The CMI model allows the user to fix the long-term mortality-improvement rate; Stephen has written previously about some of the undesirable consequences of this, while Gavin has written about dealing with its lack of an uncertainty measure. However, other consequences of a targeting assumption are less well known, so we will explore them here. We present a simple example which illustrates the impact that an assumption about the future - which after all is what a target is - can have on a forecast.

To illustrate, we use male mortality data, i.e. death counts andů

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Tags: mortality projections, targeting methods, confidence intervals

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