Version 2.8.7 of the Projections Toolkit

Publication Date:

2.8.7 update

  • A new resource area Training tab including datasets and exercises.
  • Availability of 2D Period shocks model as per Kirkby & Currie (2010).
  • Availability of a CBD M9 model with smoothing on main age term.
  • New plot shows the inverse roots of the characteristic polynomials of the autoregressive (AR) and moving-average (MA) parts of the ARIMA model.
  • License configurable SAML-based single-sign-on authentication.
  • Platform, security and administrative support updates.
  • Various fixes and handling improvements (documented in the release notes).
2.8.6 update
  • Robust ARIMA models - Covid-19 mortality results in outliers in 2020 and 2021 for many countries so there is now the option to use the methodology of Chen & Liu (1993) for robust estimation of maximum-likelihood estimates within ARIMA models.
  • Robust drift models - there is now the option to use the methodology of Chen & Liu (1993) for robust estimation of drift parameters by treating as an ARIMA(0,1,0) model.
  • Robust forecasts for the CBD family of models - there is now the option to use the methodology of Galeano, Peña & Tsay (2006) for robust estimation of maximum-likelihood estimates within the multivariate random walks of the CBD family.
  • User profile simplification.
  • Platform, security and administrative support updates.
2.8.5 update
  • Configurable TOTP passcode lifetime to support greater range of authenticator apps.
  • Automatic user alerting on notification changes.
  • Automatic idle account locking based on license settings.
  • Improved auditing.
2.8.4 update
  • Addition of the CBD M9 stochastic projection model.
  • Support for EDS - Enhanced Dedicated Servers with 16, 32 and 64 thread parallelism.
  • VaR Resource Adjustment option can enhance VaR performance, especially on Enterprise and EDS servers
  • System load statistics are now captured during operations and displayed on hover of the Status field on file history screen.
  • Hardware-bounded threading - use all threads in a single operation for Enterprise and EDS servers.
  • Switchable performance math library for Enterprise and EDS servers with up to 25% boost for certain operations
  • Fixes and handling improvements (documented in the release notes).
2.8.3 update
  • Improved Excel templates including support for larger record counts and dynamic attributes.
  • Improved error and pulse file logging.
  • Fixes and handling improvements (documented in the release notes).
2.8.2 update
  • VaR quantile report regeneration for user selected p-values.
  • Bulk operations offering multiple file deletion, reload and sharing.
  • Activity audit enhancements allowing searching for support operations and incomplete operations by date.
  • Improved Excel templates including support for larger record counts and dynamic attributes.
  • Various fixes and handling improvements (documented in the release notes).
2.8.1 update
  • Improved built-in operation transforms between XML and Excel
  • The ability to access configuration (ConfigurationSet) details for running operations.
  • The launch of Longevitas Enterprise, a massively-parallel platform option for the most demanding users and calculations.
  • Various fixes and handling improvements.
2.8 base release
  • Users can now choose liability types other than immediate annuities including deferred annuities and various assurances.
  • Baseline-driven smoothing within VaR inherits smoothing and overdispersion parameters from the baseline projection increasing stability and improving performance. Documented in Richards, Currie, Kleinow & Ritchie (2019).
  • Enhanced ARIMA fitting by retrying failures with different initial values and excluding models with degenerate covariance matrices.
  • Improved VaR runtime estimation by better discounting of non-simulation steps.
  • User control of cohort-drop parameter controlling the handling of corner regions in models with a cohort term.
  • Enhanced authentication now supports time-based one-time (TOTP) passcodes compatible with apps such as Google Authenticator and FreeOTP.
  • Security and platform changes, including shorter key and certificate lifetimes, additional schema-level encryptions and the implementation of a web-application firewall on every server.
  • Various fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.9 update
  • Extension of Value at Risk (VaR) to support multi-year time horizons.
  • The ability to create animations of projection curves in both PDF and GIF format.
  • Configuration sets: providing the ability to download (view) operation configuration and upload(set) those settings en-masse.
  • GDPR: Standalone postal heatmap generation to allow creation of postal district heatmaps without including postcodes in experience datasets.
  • GDPR: The system will no longer hold the original uploaded file name.
  • Various fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.7 update
  • Stochastic implementations of the APCI model family.
  • The CBD M5 model family gains a new Perks variant.
  • It is now possible to regenerate the outputs for a single simulation from a VaR run.
  • The ability to fit ARIMA models consistent with R version 3 in addition to R version 2.
  • The addition of Boole's rule as an option for integrating life expectancies and annuity factors.
  • Improvements to built-in transforms allowing output to CSV/Excel format for all operations.
  • Reports have been updated to include TAS releases from July 2017.
  • Enhanced documentation, Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • Various fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.5 update
  • We have added a new option for handling parameter trend risk in ARIMA forecasts, based on the paper by Kleinow & Richards (2016).
  • Sample paths, and thus VaR calculations, have been enabled for ARIMA (p,2,q) models.
  • Additional knot positioning options have been added to allow preservation of knot positions after adding up to five years of data.
  • The Projections Explorer template now offers the facility to switch between various methods of numerical approximation.
  • Random number generation features including per operation RNG seed modification and exposure of Mersenne Twister RNG option.
  • Customers can now control the application interface timezone used for timestamp display.
  • Enhanced documentation, Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.3 update
  • Model M7 (quadratic age function with cohort terms) has been added to the Projections toolkit.
  • The Lee-Carter family has been extended with a smoothed-alpha variant.
  • The Simpson's 3/8 rule is now available for calculation of illustrative annuity factors and life expectancies.
  • Operation configuration captured at submission rather than upon execution. This is particulary helpful when scheduling multiple tasks beyond licensed concurrency limits.
  • Configurable selection from a set of peer-reviewed Lee-Carter constraint systems.
  • Smoothing algorithm enhancements including control over upper and lower smoothing parameter boundaries.
  • The ability to apply ARIMA search space options for p and q to the ARIMA model for gamma in APC, M6 and M7.
  • Enhanced documentation, Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.1 update
  • Model M6 (CBD with cohort terms) has been added to the Projections toolkit.
  • The Age-Period model in Original, Gompertz and Smooth variants has been added.
  • The method of equivalent constant annual improvement is now implemented in the Projection Explorer.
  • Support for DSV/semicolon-delimited and comma-decimal separator file uploads.
  • Enhanced Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.0 update
  • A fully updated hardware and software platform incorporating improved scalability and resilience features.
  • Concurrent scheduling of operations on a single population.
  • Built-in model-extract transforms projection XML output into accessible Excel and CSV formats.
  • User-specified discount factors as an alternative to fixed interest rates and yield curves.
  • QIS5-style shock implemented in Excel Projection Explorer.
  • Additional sample path output formats
  • Enhanced Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.4.x update
  • Parallel Value-at-risk (VaR) for dedicated servers vastly improves run-times for slower models and larger simulation counts.
  • Non-reproducible sample paths option allows additional ways to explore volatility and trend risk.
  • Active audit includes improved selection features and the ability to link directly from the audit trail to the operations or files of interest.
  • File visibility and one-click navigation added to every file related screen.
  • Integrated helpdesk reporting, capturing application context.
  • Enhanced Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.3.x update
  • Unlimited key ages for projections and Value-at-risk (VaR).
  • Value-at-risk (VaR) enhancements for model robustness checking.
  • The Toolkit now supports ARIMA models with a non-zero mean.
  • 2D Basis benchmarking from piggyback projections.
  • A new quantile report for analysing the results of VaR operations.
  • Enhanced Excel templates in a variety of areas.
  • Additional authentication settings to increase control on a per-license basis
2.2.x update
  • The introduction of yield curves as an alternative to constant interest rates. Yield-curve models supported include interpolation, penalised splines, Dobbie-Wilkie, Nelson-Siegel and Svensson.
  • The introduction of the Age-Period-Cohort (APC or M3) family of projection models, including the original model plus two alternatives for smoothing the age parameters: a Gompertz age function and a P-spline-smoothed age function.
  • The introduction of a one-year value-at-risk (VaR) operation to explore model stability and to put longevity risk into a one-year time horizon for Solvency II.
  • Excel-based benchmarking of your choice of deterministic projection basis against a stochastic model.
  • Fully-flexible observation weighting.
  • Large-print technical guides for use on smaller devices such as e-Readers, smartphones and tablets (for example, Amazon's Kindle).
  • Enhanced PDF reports including including hotlinked table of contents and dynamic bibliography.
  • Enhanced file sharing with new restricted and standard sharing modes, and the ability to return a file share when complete.
  • Process control for multiple running operations per file.
  • SMS provider rotation for multiple notifications within a short time period to minimise dependence on a single provider.
2.1.x update
  • Mass calculation of annuity factors and life expectancies, including Excel® spreadsheets to integrate with your own tools.
  • Targetting the number of degrees of freedom in a model as alternative option to minimizing the BIC.
  • Inclusion of a new Projections Toolkit Technical Guide explaining internals and theoretical underpinning for the projection system and models.
  • Annotation for sample paths to illustrate the derivation of their calculation.
  • Improved integration features for clients with access to Longevitas or
  • Operation completion and password hint notifications now available by SMS in addition to — or instead of — e-mail.
  • Additional extended authentication settings including multiple fixed IP addresses and net masks.
2.0.x update
  • Ability to extend projected mortality rates by age
  • Introduction of the CBD5 family of models - P-spline and Gompertz variants
  • Graduation of standard tables using 1D P-spline age penalties
  • Two-factor authentication incorporating SMS passcode and fixed IP options
  • Validation and test facility for SMS numbers
  • Notifications at individual, organisation and server wide level
1.4.x update
  • Addition of sample paths for drift models
  • Addition of sample paths for ARIMA (p,1,q) models.
  • User control of knot positioning in models using splines for smoothing.
  • User control of optimisation method, including a grid search based on simulated annealing for challenging functional shapes.
1.3.x update
  • Extension to Excel-based projection explorer to support more charts and a broader range of Excel versions
  • Extensions to upper projections limits and smoothing overrides
  • TAS-R information added to projections PDF report
  • Ability to reuse existing projection models and piggyback projections
  • Colour coding for large positive and negative residuals in Excel residuals downloads
1.2 update
  • An Excel-based projection explorer, including automatic calculation of reduction factors and improvement rates using your choice of ICA/Solvency II stress level.
  • Excel-formatted downloads including a multi-worksheet format for qx stress scenarios.
  • Changes to handling of over-dispersion, including addition of over-dispersion parameter to models in the smooth Lee-Carter family.
  • Generation of sample paths for smoothed models using penalty projections.
  • Addition of drift-model variants for time-series models in the Lee-Carter family.
  • Residual file download and large residual weighting.
1.1 update
  • 2D P-spline models extended to allow fitting of an overdispersion parameter, allowing for extra-Poisson variation caused by, for example, period effects or duplication
  • Addition of base mortality smoothing override to Lee-Carter Fully smoothed and Smooth alpha and beta (time-series) models
  • Minimum year boundary lowered to 1900 to support population data from wider number of territories
1.0 base release
  • A range of stochastic projection models supported to investigate model risk:
  • Extended Lee-Carter family - time series projections (Original, DDE, Gompertz, smooth alpha and beta)
  • Extended Lee-Carter family - penalty projections (Currie Richards 2009, Gompertz, Fully-smoothed)
  • 2D P-spline family - penalty projections (2D age-period, 2D age-cohort)
  • Projections against any age and year range selection to allow for straightforward back-testing
  • Piggyback models to investigate basis risk in smaller portfolios

About the Projections Toolkit

Insurers and pension schemes are under increasing pressure to understand the uncertainty over future mortality improvements.  An important tool for this is a stochastic projection model, which can be complicated to fit.  The Projections Toolkit makes it easy for an actuarial advisor to fit a wide variety of projection models to explore the uncertainties over future mortality.

The Projections Toolkit has particular application for life insurers and reinsurers under Solvency II in the EU.

Previous news

Version 2.8.7 of Longevitas

12 August 2023

2.8.7 Update

  • A new resource area Training tab including datasets and exercises.
  • Additional exclusion values for modelling specification.
  • Additional liability and valuation outputs.
  • License configurable SAML-based single-s