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Posts feedThe Mystery of the Non-fatal Deaths
In the course of a recent investigation, with my colleagues Dr Oytun Haçarız and Professor Torsten Kleinow, a key parameter was the mortality rate of persons suffering from Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM), an inherited heart disorder characterized by thickening of the left ventricular muscle wall. It is quite rare, so precision is not to be expected, and indeed an annual mortality rate of 1% \((q_x=0.01)\), independent of age \(x\), is widely cited. I
'Twas the Night Before Christmas
The title of this blog is the opening of A Visit from St.
Visualising data-quality in time
In a recent blog I defined the Nelson-Aalen estimate with respect to calendar time, rather than with respect to age as is usual.
Spotting quality issues with limited data
In an earlier posting I showed how to use the Kaplan-Meier function to identify subtle data problems. However, what can you do when you don't have the detailed information to build a full survival curve?
Spotting hidden data-quality issues
The growing market for longevity risk-transfer means that takers of the risk are keenly interested in the mortality characteristics of the portfolio concerned. The first thing requested by the risk-taker is therefore detailed data on the portfolio's recent mortality experience. This is ideally data extracted on a policy-by-policy basis.
Special assignment
We talked previously about the use of user-defined validation rules to clean up specific data artefacts you sometimes find in portfolio data. One question came up recently about modelling bespoke benefit bands, and this can also benefit from user-defined rules.
Business benefits of statistical models
In a recent meeting I was asked by a reinsurer what the advantages were of using statistical models in his business. The reinsurer knew about the greater analytical power of survival models, but he wanted more.
Rewriting the rulebook
It is an unfortunate fact of life that through time every portfolio will acquire data artefacts that make risk analysis trickier. Policyholder duplication is one example of this and archival of claims breaking the time-series is another.