Information Matrix

This is the fourth and final blog on the use of constraints in the modelling and forecasting of mortality. The previous three blogs (here, here and here) demonstrated that there is no need to worry about which linear constraints to use: the fitted values of mortality and crucially their forecast values always come out the same.

This blog brings together two pieces of work. The first is the paper we presented to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, "A stochastic implementation of the APCI model for mortality projections", which will appear in the British Actuarial Journal. The second is a previous blog where I examined the role of constraints in models of mortality.