Mortality shocks

The COVID-19 pandemic caused sharp spikes in mortality rates in both population and insurer data sets.  These spikes present problems for actuaries using recent mortality-experience data to calibrate bases for long-term insurance calculations.  The following links provide materials on dealing with mortality shocks in portfolio experience data.

The resources below cover the analysis of portfolio data affected by shocks like COVID-19.  For mortality projections, see our page on robust forecasting.


On the real-time tracking of portfolio mortality levels:

On accounting for mortality shocks in mortality analysis:



The Actuary magazine carried an article on how to accommodate mortality shocks in portfolio mortality models.